CS2
CS2 Case Drop Chances and Average Cost per Skin
Learn more about CS2 Weapon Case Odds and the costs of opening. Thinking of opening a Case, check this article first to see why it may not be worth it.
Odds
andCosts
Each week in CS2, players receive a guaranteed case drop upon their first level-up. This weekly drop is often seen as a free opportunity to get a valuable item, and many players consider it a highlight of their playtime.
But is opening that case actually worth it?
Let’s take a closer look at the odds, the costs involved, and why holding onto—or selling—your weekly case might be the smarter move.
Read more about the Weekly Drop System here:CS2 Case Drops Explained
Average Weapon Case Odds
Rarity | Color | Percentages | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
Mil-Spec Grade | Blue | 79.92% | 4 in 5 |
Restricted | Purple | 15.98% | 1 in 6 |
Classified | Pink | 3.2% | 1 in 31 |
Covert | Red | 0.64% | 1 in 156 |
Exceedingly Rare | Gold | 0.26% | 1 in 385 |
Depending on the price of the weapon case, the average cost of an item of a specific rarity can be calculated by multiplying the cost of the case (including the key) by the average number of cases you need to open to obtain an item of that rarity.
Average Weapon Case Costs
Rarity | Cost per item (1$ Case) | Cost per item (2$ Case) | Cost per item (5$ Case) | Cost per item (10$ Case) | Cost per item (50$ Case) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mil-Spec Grade | 4,37 $ | 5,62 $ | 9,37 $ | 15,62 $ | 65,62 $ |
Restricted | 21,00 $ | 27,00 $ | 45,00 $ | 75,00 $ | 315,00 $ |
Classified | 108,50 $ | 139,50 $ | 232,50 $ | 387,50 $ | 1.627,50 $ |
Covert | 546,00 $ | 702,00 $ | 1.170,00 $ | 1.950,00 $ | 8.190,00 $ |
Exceedingly Rare | 1.347,50 $ | 1.732,50 $ | 2.887,50 $ | 4.812,50 $ | 20.212,50$ |
The average cost of opening a Knife in CS2 varies from more than $ 1.000 US up to over $ 20.000, depending on the price of the case.
Keep in mind that all odds and costs are based on the average. You might even open 2000 cases in a row without getting an Exceedingly Rare item.
A Better Alternative
Instead of opening your weekly case drop:
Check its market value on platforms like Skinport
Sell it for real money on Skinport
Use the money toward purchasing a skin you actually want!
Hold onto it—cases can appreciate in value over time, especially if they’re removed from the active drop pool
The guaranteed weekly case drop is a nice incentive for playing CS2 regularly. But just because you receive a case doesn’t mean you need to open it.
Understanding the odds and costs can help you make smarter decisions and get more value out of your time and effort in the game.
Based on the average odds and costs, it is always smarter to buy the skins you desire than unboxing cases.
Selling your cases on Skinport for real money brings you a more stable weekly revenue than opening cases.
