CS2 Case Odds Explained

It may appear that opening a case with Counter-Strike items is a magical process. When you press the button, Lord Gaben decides whether to bless you with Dragon Lore or simply give you a common skin. That is not how it works! The mathematical mechanism of CS2 case odds is well understood. A lot depends on your luck here, which means that nothing can really influence what item you get.

The likelihood of dropping rare skins (and, in some cases, any skin) is predetermined. Knowing it can help you anticipate what to expect from each Counter-Strike case.

Before we begin, let us state unequivocally that there is no practical difference between CS:GO and CS2 cases. All weapon finishes and containers from the previous game version have been fully transferred. Skins may appear better in-game, as one of the main CS2 features is improved visuals. Aside from that, any CS:GO case can be opened in CS2.

We expect some new Counter-Strike 2 cases to be added to the game. They will follow the same CS2 odds patterns.

What are the different rarities and their odds

The majority of cases contain CS2 skins of varying rarity levels. The CS2 odds are the chances of getting an item from those levels. And here are some examples:

• Rare / Mil-Spec (Blue) – 79.92%

• Mythical / Restricted (Purple) – 15.98%

• Legendary / Classified (Pink) – 3.2%

• Ancient / Covert (Red) – 0.64%

• Exceedingly Rare Special (Gold) – 0.26%

For a long time, these numbers were hidden behind the illusionary magic. Then, in response to the Chinese government's demands, Valve revealed the odds.

Example: Operation Bravo Case

Here's an example of how the odds in CS2 work: The Operation Bravo Case.

These are the items you'll have nearly a 80% chance of drawing when opening an Operation Bravo Case. These are the Mil-Spec items or 'blue items', the lowest category and usually also the lowest value in price.

These are the Restricted or 'purple items'. You'll have a 16% Chance of getting one of them if you open this case.

These are the Classified or 'pink items. Here you have a 3.2% Chance.

Covert or 'red items' have a 0.6% chance and are the most rare category of guns in the game.

Finally there are the Rare Special items, the knives in this case (pun intended) with odds of only 0.26%.

Is it worth it to open cases in order to get a knife?

If you look at the numbers, it is definitely not worth it to open cases wether your goal is to specifically get a knife or make profit by opening them. Statistically you'll unbox a knife every 400 cases if you open an infinite amount of them. If you add all the costs, the math does not check out and you'll lose a lot of money in the long run. But there's more to opening cases than rational thoughts and the desire to own a certain skin: The thrill of opening some cases and the prospect of maybe getting lucky is absolutely worth it sometimes.

In the end everyone has to decide for themselves what their approach should be when it comes to skins and cases. If your goal is to simply own a specific knife, then you should maybe rather buy it directly (especially here on Skinport) and not rely on your luck by opening cases. But opening cases for fun if you have some spare money usually does not hurt either and can be a ton of fun, if you are reasonable about it.